FleetMon partner Oil Price Information Service (OPIS) announces a break-through in the otherwise murky world of commodity flow tracking after its team in Europe successfully tracked vessels accounting for 97.5% of official European Commission jet fuel import statistics in Q1 2014.
Although statisticians at the European Commission publish import volumes two to three months after the vessels are booked, it has long been a cherished goal of modern oil analysis to pinpoint and track an import surge or shortfall ahead of time.
Thanks to an unparalleled team of reporters watching commodity markets internationally, the OPIS Tanker Tracker on FleetMon.com is the first real-time tracker of jet fuel and diesel into Europe to reliably forecast volumes at least two weeks before tankers arrive at ports.
Tanker Tracker predicts market-moving import volumes
The OPIS Tanker Tracker was launched a year ago, covering jet fuel only, with a database stretching back through 2012. In January, OPIS began tracking ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) being shipped into Europe, primarily from the U.S. and Russia, the region’s two biggest suppliers. OPIS offers the service in collaboration with vessel tracking service FleetMon, based in Rostock, Germany.
“This level of accuracy is the key that turns the mapping technology into bankable insight,” says veteran European distillate trader, Simon Pratt, who recently joined the OPIS vessel tracking team. “We’ve watched a fleet of fuel cargoes change destination, and prices fall steeply at that new destination.”
FleetMon’s powerful vessel tracking technology und elegant user interface enables following vessels on their global voyages up to their final destination, monitoring transports for unforeseen changes or delays, and determine accurate delivery dates.
On top of this foundation, it’s the OPIS Tanker Tracker that reveals the products aboard, and thereby, predicts market-moving total import volumes. OPIS uses its industry knowledge and extensive contacts to build a reliable list of tankers being loaded with jet fuel and diesel, detailing the buyer and seller of the fuel, or who is chartering the vessel, and then tracks ships to their final destination.
The OPIS Tanker Tracker also allows data to be downloaded into an Excel spreadsheet format, which can yield valuable market intelligence.
For example, figures from this year’s second quarter showed oil company BP was the biggest supplier of jet fuel into Europe with 780,000 tons, followed by Kuwait Petroleum Corp. at 625,000 tons. Kuwait is the biggest exporter of jet fuel to Europe on an annual basis.
During May, oil trader Vitol was seen supplying 48% of jet fuel into Europe.
Tracking of ULSD exports to Europe from Russia also provides interesting color on the commercial arrangements between Russian oil refiners and global oil traders at a time when geopolitical tensions and sanctions threaten energy supplies.
OPIS’s Accurate Shipping List Aligns with EU Data
The OPIS Tanker Tracker has shown to be extremely accurate: in the fourth quarter of 2013 it tracked 5.185 million tons of jet fuel into Europe, compared to Eurostat’s 5.347 million, a 97% success rate. Eurostat is the European Commission’s database containing trade information.
This year, the OPIS Tanker Tracker achieved a 97.5% correlation with Eurostat for first quarter jet fuel imports into 28 member countries.
The Eurostat data showed 4.26 million tons imported into Europe during the January to March period, compared to the OPIS Tanker Tracker, which tallied 4.152 million tons on 79 tankers. Monthly figures varied due to vessel slippage.
Eurostat provides trade data typically three months behind real-time imports, so OPIS Tanker Tracker subscribers have a significant, three-month advantage over official European Commission trade figures.
The OPIS Tanker Tracker is edited by shipping industry veteran Michelle Wiese Bockmann. You can hear Michelle discuss the OPIS Tanker Tracker in the film, Seven Days of Marine Traffic on Earth, and request a free preview of both the jet and diesel vessel tracking services here.
Director, Business Development and Content
OPIS | Oil Price Information Service
Phone: +46 (0)31 970771 (UK time zone)
OPIS, a division of UCG, is the world’s most comprehensive source for petroleum, LPG/NGL, jet fuel and biofuels pricing and news information with offices in the U.S., Europe and Singapore and is the most widely accepted U.S. fuel price benchmark for supply contracts and competitive positioning. http://www.opisnet.com
Founded in 1977, UCG is one of America’s leading, privately held providers of specialized business-to-business information. UCG’s portfolio is composed of companies serving the information and software needs of decision makers in health care, oil and energy, technology, telecommunications, banking and finance, and the mortgage industry. The company has received many awards for journalistic excellence and was voted one of D.C.’s 50 Best Places to Work by Washingtonian Magazine. http://www.ucg.com
FleetMon, a service of JAKOTA Cruise Systems GmbH, provides the latest in satellite-based vessel tracking and information services employing a uniquely elegant and powerful user interface. http://www.fleetmon.com